India's chip production set to rise to 13% by 2030

Forrester has published a global technology sovereignty forecast projecting that India's semiconductor chip production score will rise to 13% by 2030. Its overall technology sovereignty score is also expected to edge up from 32% to 35% over the same period.

The findings place India among a group of mid-ranking technology powers expected to make gradual gains rather than close the gap with the leaders. Across the 14 countries covered by the index, the average technology sovereignty score is forecast to rise only from 39% to 40%, pointing to limited global progress.

Forrester's index measures how far countries can develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk. It assesses nine areas: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data centre capacity relative to technology spending, data centre autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.

India's projected rise in chip production stands out because semiconductor manufacturing is expected to record the strongest improvement of any technology dimension in the study. Even so, the country's broader score suggests that growth in one part of the stack will not by itself produce a sharp shift in national technology autonomy.

Broader progress will depend on investment across AI, cloud, data centre capacity, software, and talent, alongside strategic partnerships. The outlook points to a model in which India builds domestic capacity in selected areas while continuing to rely on international relationships in others.

Compared with larger powers, India remains some distance behind the leaders. China and the US are expected to retain the highest overall technology sovereignty scores through 2030, underlining how concentrated technological self-reliance remains among a small number of states with deep industrial and financial resources.

In semiconductors, the US and South Korea are forecast to lead by 2030 with chip production scores of 79%, up from 45% in each case. Japan is projected to rise from 36% to 53%, while China is expected to move from 40% to 51%, leaving India improved but still well behind the main manufacturing centres.

Regional split

The forecast describes Asia Pacific as highly polarised, with some of the strongest and weakest positions in the global rankings. After China, South Korea is expected to rise from 45% to 47%, Japan from 43% to 46%, and India from 32% to 35%, while Australia is projected to remain unchanged at 29%.

That distribution reflects the uneven foundations for technology sovereignty across the region. Some countries have scale in semiconductors, infrastructure, or domestic technology supply chains, while others remain dependent on foreign providers for essential platforms and components.

The same pattern appears elsewhere. In North America, the US remains the dominant player, while Canada is forecast to edge up from 33% to 34% and Mexico to remain at 20%, the lowest score among the 14 countries assessed.

Europe's largest economies also show only incremental gains. Germany and Spain are each forecast to rise from 34% to 36%, France from 33% to 35%, the UK from 30% to 32%, and Italy from 27% to 29%. Continued dependence on foreign suppliers in chips, cloud, software, and data centre capacity continues to weigh on the region.

India's position

For India, the contrast between chip manufacturing gains and modest overall improvement is central to the report's conclusion. The country has sought to build a stronger semiconductor base while promoting domestic digital infrastructure and AI development, but the index suggests that self-reliance across the full technology landscape remains a longer-term challenge.

The study argues that midsize and emerging technology powers are unlikely to achieve full self-sufficiency in the near term. Instead, they are more likely to pursue targeted investment, open technologies, alliances, and public-private partnerships to reduce dependence in the most sensitive areas.

Forrester argues that semiconductors and software remain among the most difficult sovereignty issues because global chip supply chains are concentrated and software markets are dominated by a limited number of firms. Those structural factors make it harder for countries such as India to translate domestic policy ambition into broad-based autonomy.

A brief assessment of India's outlook accompanied the findings. "India is well positioned to strengthen its role in the global technology landscape, supported by its digital innovation agenda, AI ambitions, and deep technology talent pool," said Biswajeet Mahapatra, Principal Analyst, Forrester.

He added: "As AI competition and geopolitical uncertainty intensify, India's success will depend on balancing strategic autonomy with strong global partnerships while continuing to invest in trusted infrastructure and resilient technology ecosystems."

Forrester also framed the results in a wider geopolitical context. "Ongoing geopolitical volatility, AI competition, and semiconductor supply chain risks have put tech sovereignty firmly in the spotlight," said Dario Maisto, Principal Analyst, Forrester.

He added: "Today, tech sovereignty is concentrated in the hands of a few global leaders, creating an uneven competitive advantage for some countries. To compete in the AI era, nations must understand their strategic dependencies and build durable partnerships that safeguard their data, infrastructure, and long-term autonomy."